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% %% Jose Antonio Abell Mena provided this for DSL descriptions
% % (used in a file _Chapter_SoftwareHardware_Domain_Specific_Language_English.tex
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%  \usetheme{Antibes}  % ima sadrzaj gore i kao graf ...
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\title[Modeling Uncertainty for ESSI]
        {On Modeling Uncertainty in \\
        Earthquake Soil Structure Interaction \\
        Analysis}


%\subtitle
%{Include Only If Paper Has a Subtitle}

%\author[Author, Another] % (optional, use only with lots of authors)
%{F.~Author\inst{1} \and S.~Another\inst{2}}
% - Give the names in the same order as the appear in the paper.
% - Use the \inst{?} command only if the authors have different
%   affiliation.
\pgfdeclareimage[height=0.2cm]{university-logo}{/home/jeremic/BG/amblemi/ucdavis_logo_blue_sm}
\pgfdeclareimage[height=0.7cm]{lbnl-logo}{/home/jeremic/BG/amblemi/lbnl-logo}


\author[Jeremi{\'c}] % (optional, use only with lots of authors)
%{Boris~Jeremi{\'c}}
{Boris Jeremi{\'c} et al.}

%\institute[Computational Geomechanics Group \hspace*{0.3truecm}
\institute[\pgfuseimage{university-logo}\hspace*{0.1truecm}\pgfuseimage{lbnl-logo}] % (optional, but mostly needed)
%{ Professor, University of California, Davis\\
{ University of California, Davis\\
%  and\\
%  Faculty Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley }
  Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley }
% - Use the \inst command only if there are several affiliations.
% - Keep it simple, no one is interested in your street address.


\date[] % (optional, should be abbreviation of conference name)
{\small ILEE Forum, \\
        Tongji University, Shanghai, China \\
        December 2016}

\subject{}
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  \titlepage
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% You might wish to add the option [pausesections]
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\end{frame}

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% Structuring a talk is a difficult task and the following structure
% may not be suitable. Here are some rules that apply for this
% solution:

% - Exactly two or three sections (other than the summary).
% - At *most* three subsections per section.
% - Talk about 30s to 2min per frame. So there should be between about
%   15 and 30 frames, all told.

% - A conference audience is likely to know very little of what you
%   are going to talk about. So *simplify*!
% - In a 20min talk, getting the main ideas across is hard
%   enough. Leave out details, even if it means being less precise than
%   you think necessary.
% - If you omit details that are vital to the proof/implementation,
%   just say so once. Everybody will be happy with that.



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\section{Motivation}




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\subsection*{Motivation}



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\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Long Term Motivation}

\begin{itemize}



%\vspace*{0.3cm}
  \item High fidelity seismic modeling and simulation for infrastructure objects

\vspace*{3mm}
  \item  Development of an expert numerical modeling and simulation tool

\vspace*{3mm}
  \item    Use  of  expert  tool  and  high fidelity numerical models to analyze
  seismic behavior of soil structure systems


\vspace*{3mm}
  \item  Predict and inform rather than (force) fit



\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{ESSI Hypothesis}

\begin{itemize}



%\vspace*{0.5cm}
  \item   Nonlinear interplay    of  the  Earthquake, Soil and Structure plays a
  decisive role in successes and failures


\vspace*{3mm}
  \item   Timing  and spatial location of energy dissipation determines location
  and amount of damage

\vspace*{3mm}
  \item  When  we  control  and  direct  timing  and  spatial location of energy
  dissipation, we optimize soil structure system for
    \begin{itemize}
\vspace*{1mm}
      \item Safety and
\vspace*{1mm}
      \item Economy
    \end{itemize}

\end{itemize}
\end{frame}


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{High Fidelity Predictive Capabilities}
% \frametitle{High Fidelity Modeling of SFS System:
% Verification, Validation and Prediction}


\begin{itemize}


     \item   {{Verification}   provides   evidence  that  the  model  is  solved
     correctly.} Mathematics issue.

\vspace*{1mm}
     \item  {{Validation}  provides  evidence that the correct model is solved.}
     Physics issue.

\vspace*{1mm}
     \item  {Prediction}:   use  of  computational  model  to foretell the state
     of  a  physical  system  under consideration under conditions for which the
     computational model has not been validated.

\vspace*{1mm}
     \item  {Prediction under uncertainty}:
     
        \begin{itemize}

          \item Modeling uncertainty

          \item Parametric uncertainty

        \end{itemize}


\vspace*{1mm}
   \item Predictive capabilities with {low Kolmogorov Complexity}

% %% % \vspace*{0.2cm}
% %   \item {\bf The Finite Element
% %   Interpreter  \FEI{}} might be one such
% %   predictive tool (application program)

\end{itemize}

\end{frame}






%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% \begin{frame}
%  \frametitle{Reduction of Modeling Uncertainty}
% 
% \begin{itemize}
% 
% 
%    \item        Modeling      Uncertainty:   introduced   with   unnecessary and
%    unrealistic modeling simplification
% 
% \vspace*{2mm}
%   \item  Simplified (or inadequate/wrong) modeling:  important  features    are
%   missed (3D (6D) seismic ground motions, inelasticity, etc.)
% 
% \vspace*{4mm}
%      \item   Model  and simulate at least one or two level higher sophistication
%      models, and then decide if simplifications are appropriate
% 
% %\vspace*{0.2cm}
% %     \item  Avoid  use  of  results  obtained  using models with (high) modeling
% %     uncertainty
% 
% 
% 
% \end{itemize}
% \end{frame}
% 
% 



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%\subsection*{Uncertainties}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Modeling Uncertainty: Simplified  Models}

\begin{itemize}



  \item      Simplified  modeling:    Features (important ?)   are neglected (6D
  ground motions, inelasticity)

%\vspace*{1mm}
     \item   Modeling   Uncertainty:   unrealistic   and   unnecessary  modeling
     simplifications

%\vspace*{1mm}
     \item    Modeling   simplifications: justifiable  iff higher level 
     sophistication model shows that simplified  features are not important


\end{itemize}

    
\begin{center}
  {\includegraphics[width=45mm]{movie_ff_3d_mp4_icon.jpeg}}
%
%\hspace*{10mm}
%
  {\includegraphics[width=45mm]{movie_ff_1d_mp4_icon.jpeg}}
\end{center}


\end{frame}



%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Parametric Uncertainty: Material and Loads}



\begin{itemize}



  \item  Significant uncertainty in material and loads

%\vspace*{1mm}
     \item  Need  to  propagate  uncertainty through simulation, to give
     regulators and engineers information for design, licensing...


\end{itemize}

%
%\vspace{1cm}
%\hspace{-0.5cm}
%Example: Elastic Stiffness

%\vspace*{-3mm}
\begin{figure}[!hbpt]
\begin{center}
%
\hspace*{-7mm}
\includegraphics[width=7.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Papers/2008/JGGE-GoverGmax/figures/YoungModulus_RawData_and_MeanTrend_01-Ed.pdf}
% \hfill
\includegraphics[width=5.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Papers/2008/JGGE-GoverGmax/figures/YoungModulus_Histogram_Normal_01-Ed.pdf}
%
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\vspace*{-0.8cm}
%\hspace*{-3.3cm}
\begin{flushleft}
{\tiny
Transformation  of SPT $N$-value: 
1-D Young's modulus, $E$ 
(cf. Phoon and Kulhawy (1999B))
~}
\end{flushleft}

\end{frame}


% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% \begin{frame}
% \frametitle{Parametric Uncertainty: Material Strength}
% 
% 
% \begin{figure}[!hbpt]
% \begin{center}
% %
% \hspace*{-7mm}
% \includegraphics[width=6.50truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Papers/2008/JGGE-GoverGmax/figures/ShearStrength_RawData_and_MeanTrend-Mod.pdf}
% \hspace*{-7mm}
% % \hfill
% \includegraphics[width=6.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Papers/2008/JGGE-GoverGmax/figures/ShearStrength_Histogram_PearsonIV-FineTuned-Mod.pdf}
% %
% \end{center}
% \end{figure}
% 
% % \vspace*{-1.8cm}
% % %\hspace*{-3.3cm}
% % \begin{flushright}
% % {\tiny
% % Transformation  of SPT $N$-value: \\
% % 1-D Young's modulus, $E$ \\
% % (cf. Phoon and Kulhawy (1999B))\\
% % ~}
% % \end{flushright}
% % %
% 
% 
% \end{frame}
% 
% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% \begin{frame}
% \frametitle{Parametric Uncertainty: Material Properties}
% 
% 
% 
% \begin{figure}[!hbpt]
% \begin{center}
% % %
% \hspace*{-3mm}
% \includegraphics [width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/FieldPhiPdf.pdf}
% \hspace*{-3mm}
% \includegraphics[width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/FieldPhiCdf.pdf}
% \hspace*{3mm}
% \includegraphics[width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/FieldSuPdf.pdf}
% \hspace*{-3mm}
% \includegraphics[width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/FieldSuCdf.pdf}
% \\
% %\vspace*{-2mm}
% \hspace*{-2.5cm} \mbox{\tiny Field $\phi$} \hspace*{3.5cm} \mbox{\tiny Field $c_u$}
% %\vspace*{45mm}
% \hspace*{-3mm}
% \includegraphics[width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/LabPhiPdf.pdf}
% \hspace*{-3mm}
% \includegraphics[width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/LabPhiCdf.pdf}
% \hspace*{3mm}
% \includegraphics[width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/LabSuPdf.pdf}
% \hspace*{-3mm}
% \includegraphics[width=3.0truecm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Thesis/KonstantinosKarapiperis/Soil_Uncertainty_Report_Pdf_Cdf_Figures/LabSuCdf.pdf}
% \\
% %\vspace*{-8mm}
% \hspace*{-2.5cm} \mbox{\tiny Lab $\phi$} \hspace*{3.5cm} \mbox{\tiny Lab $c_u$}
% \end{center}
% \end{figure}
% 
% \end{frame}
% 
% 
% 
% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% 
% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% \begin{frame}
% \frametitle{Realistic ESSI Modeling (Uncertainties)}
% 
% 
% \begin{itemize}
% 
% 
% \item   Seismic   Motions:  6D,  inclined,  body  and  surface  waves
% (translations, rotations)
% %; Incoherency
% 
% %\vspace*{3mm}
% \vspace*{1mm}
% \item    Inelastic    material:    soil (dry, saturated),   rock,   concrete,   steel   
% 
% \vspace*{1mm}
% \item Inelastic contact: foundation--soil, dry, saturated, slip--gap
% 
% \vspace*{1mm}
% \item  Nonlinear buoyant forces 
% 
% \vspace*{1mm}
% \item Base Isolators, Dissipators
% 
% \vspace*{1mm}
%     \item Uncertain loading and material
% 
% \vspace*{1mm}
%      \item Verification and Validation  $\Rightarrow$  Predictions
% 
% 
% \end{itemize}
% 
% \end{frame}
% 
% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% 
% 
% 
% 
% 
% 

%
%















%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Real ESSI Simulator System}

\begin{itemize}

\item  {\bf  The  Real  ESSI Program}  is a 3D, nonlinear, time domain, parallel
finite  element program specifically developed for Hi-Fi modeling and simulation
of Earthquake Soil Structure Interaction problems for infrastructure objects

\vspace*{3mm}
\item {\bf The Real ESSI Computers} are distributed memory
parallel computers, clusters of clusters with multiple performance
processors and networks

\vspace*{3mm}
\item      {\bf        The Real  ESSI Notes} are a hypertext documentation
system   (Theory  and  Formulation,  Software  and  Hardware,  Verification  and
Validation,  Examples,  and  Applications)  detailing modeling and simulation of
ESSI problems


\end{itemize}

\end{frame}

















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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\section{ESSI Illustrations}



%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\subsection*{Illustrations}









             



%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Nuclear Power Plants: 6D or 1D Seismic Motions}


\begin{itemize}


\item Assume that a full 6D (3D) motions at the surface are only recorded in one
horizontal direction


\item  From such recorded motions one can develop a vertically propagating shear
wave in 1D

\item  Apply  such  vertically propagating shear wave to the same soil-structure
system

\end{itemize}

\vspace*{-3mm}
\begin{figure}[!H]
\begin{center}
 \includegraphics[width=6.5cm]{/home/jeremic/tex/works/Conferences/2015/CompDyn/Present/6D_to_1D_01.jpg}
\end{center}
\end{figure}



 \end{frame}


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Development of Realistic Motions}

\begin{itemize}

  \item Free field seismic motion models 
  
  \item Sources will send both P and S waves

\end{itemize}

% local 
% local  \vspace*{-2mm}
% local  \begin{center}
% local  %\movie[label=show3,width=8.5cm,poster,autostart,showcontrols,loop]
% local  \hspace*{-12mm}
% local  % %\movie[label=show3,width=5.3cm,poster,autostart,showcontrols]
% local  \movie[label=show3,width=80mm,poster]
% local    {\includegraphics[width=80mm]{movie_input_closeup_mp4_icon.jpeg}}{movie_input_closeup.mp4}
% local  \hspace*{-12mm}
% local  \end{center}
% local  % local 

% online   
\begin{center}
\href{http://sokocalo.engr.ucdavis.edu/~jeremic/lecture_notes_online_material/_Chapter_Applications_ESSI_for_NPPs/Free_Field_small_model_April2015/movie_input_closeup.mp4}
  {\includegraphics[width=80mm]{movie_input_closeup_mp4_icon.jpeg}}
\end{center}
% online  




\end{frame}



%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Realistic Earthquake Motions, 6D vs 1D}

\begin{itemize}

  \item Danger of picking one component of motions (1D) from  3D 
  
  \item  Excellent  (forced)  fit,  but  not a prediction, information is lost


\end{itemize}


% local % local
% local %\vspace*{-2mm}
% local \begin{center}
% local \hspace*{-16mm}
% local %\movie[label=show3,width=5.6cm,poster,autostart,showcontrols]
% local \movie[label=show3,width=61mm,poster]
% local   {\includegraphics[width=60mm]{movie_ff_3d_mp4_icon.jpeg}}{movie_ff_3d.mp4}
% local %\hspace*{-2mm}
% local %\hfill
% local %\movie[label=show3,width=5.6cm,poster,autostart,showcontrols]
% local \movie[label=show3,width=61mm,poster]
% local   {\includegraphics[width=60mm]{movie_ff_1d_mp4_icon.jpeg}}{movie_ff_1d.mp4}
% local \hspace*{-16mm}
% local \end{center}
% local % local  


% online 
\begin{center}
\hspace*{-16mm}
\href{http://sokocalo.engr.ucdavis.edu/~jeremic/lecture_notes_online_material/_Chapter_Applications_Earthquake_Soil_Structure_Interaction_General_Aspects/ESSI_VisIt_movies_Jose_19May2015/movie_ff_3d.mp4}
  {\includegraphics[width=60mm]{movie_ff_3d_mp4_icon.jpeg}}
%
\href{http://sokocalo.engr.ucdavis.edu/~jeremic/lecture_notes_online_material/_Chapter_Applications_Earthquake_Soil_Structure_Interaction_General_Aspects/ESSI_VisIt_movies_Jose_19May2015/movie_ff_1d.mp4}
  {\includegraphics[width=60mm]{movie_ff_1d_mp4_icon.jpeg}}
\hspace*{-16mm}
\end{center}
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\frametitle{6D vs 1D NPP ESSI Response Comparison}

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\section{Summary}

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  \frametitle{Summary}

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  \item Reduction  of  modeling uncertainty 
%  for research, design and assessment
  


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  \item  Development  and expert use of high fidelity modeling and simulation numerical
  tools:  Real  ESSI  Simulator  System 

\vspace*{1mm}
  \item {  Education}  and  {training}  of  users  (researchers, designers, regulators,
  owners) will prove essential

\vspace*{1mm}
  \item  Collaborators:
  Yang,  Cheng,  Jie,  Sett,  Taiebat,  Tafazzoli, Karapiperis, Abell,
  Pisan{\`o}, Luo, Feng,  Sinha,  Lacour,  Yang,  Behbehani, Wang, Petrone, Wong,
  McKenna, McCallen
       
\vspace*{0.1cm}
   \item Funding from and collaboration with the US-NRC,
  US-NSF,  US-DOE, CNSC, LBNL, LLNL, INL, ILEE,
  AREVA NP GmbH, and Shimizu Corp. is greatly appreciated,


\end{itemize}


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% %  \item  High fidelity
% %  modeling and simulations for performance assessment of infrastructure systems
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%   \item Funding from and collaboration with the US-NRC,
%   US-NSF,  US-DOE, CNSC, LLNL, INL,
%   AREVA NP GmbH, and Shimizu Corp. is greatly appreciated,
% 
% % \vspace*{0.5cm}
% %   \item  Collaborators, students:
% %   Mr.  Abell,  Mr.  Jeong, Mr. Aldridge. Mr.   Kamranimoghadam, Mr. Karapiperis,
% %   Mr. Watanabe, Mr. Chao,
% %   Dr.  Tafazzoli,   Prof.  Pisan{\`o} (TU Delft),
% %   Prof. Sett (U. Bufallo), Prof. Taiebat (U. British Columbia), Prof. Yang (U. Alaska)
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